Whitepaper on China’s Manned eVTOL Market

This 2025 BCG whitepaper explores China’s burgeoning manned eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) market, detailing enabling technologies, regulatory evolution, infrastructure development, and market outlooks. It highlights personal and mobility eVTOL segments, strategic industry insights, and global expansion opportunities, positioning China as a worldwide eVTOL leader.

The Boston Consulting Group’s “Whitepaper on China’s Manned eVTOL Market," published in 2025, provides a comprehensive analysis of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft within China’s emerging aviation and low-altitude economy landscape. Focusing on manned eVTOLs, the report distinguishes between personal eVTOLs, which are primarily targeted at high-net-worth individual consumers, and mobility eVTOLs, designed to address urban and intercity transit needs.

The document outlines four key technological breakthroughs fueling eVTOL feasibility: electrification, distributed propulsion, new aircraft configurations, and intelligent flight systems. It also details mature, supportive frameworks, including strong governmental policy backing, institutionalization of certification pathways through the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), accelerated infrastructure rollouts, and a deepening of localized industrial supply chains.

Market segmentation reveals substantial growth potential, projecting China’s eVTOL market to reach USD 41 billion by 2040, with an annual sales volume of approximately 160,000 units. Personal eVTOLs are forecasted to reach USD 23 billion, driven by rising consumer demand from affluent households. In contrast, mobility eVTOLs are expected to achieve USD 18 billion through private ownership, public transit, and charter services.

The report outlines diverging commercialization timelines, with personal eVTOLs poised for scaled adoption by 2026-27, in contrast to mobility eVTOLs that require more extensive regulatory and infrastructure development.

Strategic recommendations for manufacturers emphasize prioritizing near-term commercial models, developing agile supply chains, innovating in core technologies, and fostering ecosystem partnerships for operational readiness. Globally, China is positioned alongside North America and Europe as a critical driver of eVTOL expansion, though Chinese OEMs face certification, localization, and infrastructure challenges abroad.

In summary, the whitepaper forecasts China’s eVTOL industry transitioning from a conceptual to an industrial scale, heralding a transformative era for aerial mobility that aligns with national ambitions for a low-altitude economy.