Urban Air Mobility

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Urban Air Mobility

White Paper Details

Title
Urban Air Mobility
Year Published
2021
Author
Morgan Stanley Research team led by Adam Jonas, Kristine T Liwag, and others
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This report provides an updated analysis of the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) market potential, focusing on electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. It revises previous market size estimates, examines regulatory challenges, and projects the total addressable market (TAM) through 2050. 

The report takes a cross-sector approach, incorporating insights from aerospace, automotive, transportation, and technology analysts. 

  • The report updates Morgan Stanley's UAM market size projections, lowering the 2040 base case global TAM to $1 trillion (from $1.5 trillion previously) but extending forecasts to 2050, when the TAM is projected to reach $9 trillion.
  • Key technological enablers discussed include improvements in battery technology, autonomous systems, 5G/satellite communications, and advanced materials.
  • Regulatory hurdles are identified as a major challenge, with detailed analysis of FAA and EASA certification processes for eVTOL aircraft.
  • The analysis breaks down the UAM market into four main segments: Autos & Shared Mobility, Airlines, Freight Transportation, and Military & Defense.
  • The report presents bull, base, and bear case scenarios for UAM adoption, with global 2050 TAM estimates ranging from $2.3 trillion to $18.9 trillion.
  • Historical parallels are drawn to previous transportation revolutions like automobiles and commercial aviation to illustrate how new modes can expand beyond simply taking market share from existing options.
  • Near-term applications are expected in areas like rural package delivery, while human transport in urban areas faces greater regulatory and infrastructure challenges.
  • The report emphasizes that while the long-term potential for UAM is immense, investors should expect a slow initial ramp-up as technology and regulations evolve.
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