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- On the Runway to Commercialization: A Close Look at eVTOL Unit Economics
On the Runway to Commercialization: A Close Look at eVTOL Unit Economics
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White Paper Details
Title
On the Runway to Commercialization: A Close Look at eVTOL Unit Economics
Year Published
2024
Author
Roland Berger (in collaboration with the German Aerospace Center)
Number of pages:
24
This white paper analyzes the economic viability of electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft in the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market. It evaluates investment trends, technical and commercial challenges, and strategies to optimize unit economics for three primary use cases: City Taxi, Airport Shuttle, and Inter City services.
The Roland Berger white paper scrutinizes the economics of eVTOL operations, addressing both technical certification hurdles and ecosystem coordination required for commercial success. Key insights include:1. Market Context & Investment Trends
- AAM investment peaked at $7.5B in 2021 but dropped to $1.3B in 2023 due to macroeconomic headwinds and investor skepticism1.
- The industry aligns with the Gartner Hype Cycle, transitioning from disillusionment to pragmatic growth, and consolidation among OEMs is expected.
2. Unit Economics Analysis
- Three use cases were modeled:
- City Taxi (short urban commutes): High costs ($25–52/passenger mile) due to low occupancy, but remote piloting could halve prices.
- Airport Shuttle ($7.7–16.4/passenger mile): This service is competitive with premium ground transport but reliant on longer routes for scalability.
- InterCity ($1.6–2.3/per passenger mile) is the most viable option for affluent travelers, with ticket prices mirroring those of existing helicopter services.
- Cost drivers: Battery replacement, vertiport fees, and pilot salaries dominate expenses. Battery lifetime and vertiport design critically impact viability.
3. Critical Success Factors
- Collaborative ecosystems: Alignment among OEMs, operators, and vertiport developers is essential to minimize landing fees and streamline operations.
- Battery innovation: Aerospace-grade batteries with longer lifespans and lower costs are pivotal for reducing maintenance overhead.
- Regulatory clarity: Certification frameworks (e.g., EASA, FAA) must evolve to support scaled production and autonomous flight integration.
4. Market Outlook
- Early adoption will target premium niches (e.g., business travelers), with broader accessibility contingent on cost reductions and infrastructure maturity.
- Hybrid-electric or hydrogen propulsion may enhance regional air mobility (RAM) viability beyond battery limitations.
Attachments
- File DescriptionFile SizeFile TypeDownloads
- on-the-runway-to-commercialization-a-close-look-at-evtol-unit-economics-35-1739376311.pdf
11 MB
4
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