China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) designates the low-altitude economy as a strategic priority alongside AI and quantum technology. The market reached 670 billion yuan in 2024 and is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan ($211 billion) by 2025, expanding to 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035. EHang achieved the world’s first eVTOL commercial certification in October 2023, now operating passenger flights in Guangzhou and Hefei. China holds over 70% of global drone patents and accounts for more than 50% of planned vertiport infrastructure worldwide. The regulatory approach accepts autonomous operations from day one, in contrast to the FAA and EASA phased requirements that mandate piloted operations initially. The complete official plan will be available after approval by the National People’s Congress.
China unveiled the blueprint for its economic future, and anyone watching aviation needs to pay attention. The 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030, approved during the Fourth Plenary Session in late October 2025, places the low-altitude economy alongside quantum technology, AI, and aerospace as strategic emerging industries. This marks a fundamental shift in how Beijing views airspace below 3,000 meters, transforming it from an afterthought into a core engine of economic growth.
The Chinese Communist Party mentioned “high-quality development” ten times in the communique, signaling that growth at any cost has ended. Technological self-reliance, domestic consumption, and new productive forces will instead drive the next phase. The low-altitude economy fits perfectly into this vision. The Civil Aviation Administration of China projects the industry will reach 1.5 trillion yuan ($211 billion) by 2025 and balloon to 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035. The sector logged 33.8% year-on-year growth in 2023, establishing momentum that shows no signs of slowing.
What China Has Already Built
Western regulators debate certification standards. Chinese companies fly paying passengers. EHang received the world’s first eVTOL type certificate in October 2023 from the Civil Aviation Administration of China. By 2025, the company secured air operator certificates and launched commercial low-altitude tourism flights in Guangzhou and Hefei. AutoFlight’s CarryAll autonomous cargo eVTOL became the first certified advanced air mobility aircraft exceeding one ton maximum takeoff weight. These operational aircraft accumulate real-world flight hours.
EHang’s commercial operations in Guangzhou offer 10-15 minute sightseeing flights over the Pearl River and the Canton Tower, with routes extending to nearby districts for intercity connections. The two-passenger EH216-S operates at noise levels approximately 30-40% lower than those of conventional helicopters, measuring around 65-70 decibels during takeoff, compared to traditional helicopters’ 90-100 decibels. Current capacity constraints limit scalability; each aircraft can carry only two passengers, requires dedicated vertiport infrastructure, and operates on fixed routes during daylight hours with favorable weather. Battery limitations restrict flight time to roughly 25 minutes, constraining the operational radius to 30 kilometers. These limitations position current services as premium tourism experiences rather than mass transportation solutions.
EHang priced its EH216-S air taxi at 2.39 million yuan ($330,000) for the Chinese market, a figure that stunned Western competitors anticipating price points between $2 million and $10 million. The company set international pricing at $410,000 for markets outside China. The two-seat autonomous aircraft carries passengers up to 30 kilometers at speeds around 130 km/h, targeting low-altitude sightseeing, urban tourism, and airport shuttles.
Infrastructure development matches operational pace. Shenzhen, dubbed China's low-altitude economy hub, hosts more than 1,700 enterprises covering the entire value chain. The city plans to build over 1,000 vertiports to support urban air mobility. China accounts for more than 750 planned vertiports globally, representing over half the world’s total. Six cities, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Hefei, Suzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing, function as designated pilot zones for operations below 600 meters. Thirty provincial governments incorporated low-altitude economy development into official plans, with many offering substantial subsidies. Hainan Province alone proposed up to 25 million yuan annually for new low-altitude projects.
Shenzhen’s cargo drone operations tell the story. The city logged 776,000 cargo flights in 2024, up 27% year over year. DJI holds 70% of the global consumer drone market from its headquarters in Shenzhen. SF Express operates Phoenix-Wings cargo drones that dominate city-level logistics routes. Chinese cities already integrate drones into daily logistics, agriculture, emergency response, and tourism.
How China Moves Faster Than Anyone Else
Top-Down Government Coordination
China’s advantage stems from systemic factors Western markets can’t easily replicate. The government approach operates top-down, with central directives cascading through provincial and municipal levels. When the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency, established its dedicated Low-Altitude Economy Development Division in December 2024, the industry’s elevation to national priority status became official. Local governments respond by assigning land, building facilities, installing equipment, and staffing operations before handing over turnkey infrastructure to companies at minimal rent.
Regulatory Agility
The regulatory approach diverges sharply from Western models. The Civil Aviation Administration of China, the Chinese aviation regulator, implemented a flexible, phased certification framework that accepts autonomous operations from day one. The FAA and EASA require piloted operations initially, creating an intermediate step China skipped entirely. This regulatory agility accelerated deployment but sparked debate about safety standards. Western regulators target catastrophic failure probabilities of $$10^{-9}$$ (one in a billion flight hours), while China’s approach accepts $$10^{-8}$$ (one in 100 million flight hours) for passenger operations. That order-of-magnitude difference in required safety thresholds explains why Chinese companies reached commercial service years before Western counterparts.
Safety incidents provide context for these competing approaches. In September 2025, two Xpeng Aeroht eVTOLs collided during rehearsal for the Changchun Air Show, resulting in one aircraft catching fire upon landing and one pilot sustaining minor injuries. Xpeng attributed the collision to “insufficient spacing” during formation maneuvers. The incident marked the first known midair collision between eVTOL aircraft, highlighting complexities as the sector scales. Xpeng Aeroht, founded in 2013 as the flying car division of Chinese EV maker Xpeng, had generated more than 2,000 pre-orders for its Land Aircraft Carrier prototype priced at approximately $280,000.
Airspace management provides another advantage. China’s centralized control enabled the rapid implementation of low-altitude corridors, digital tracking systems, and integrated flight command platforms. Military-to-civil airspace reform streamlined approvals that would require extensive coordination across multiple agencies in decentralized Western systems.
Financial Support Systems
Government entities and state-owned enterprises represent 30-50% of customers for Chinese eVTOL manufacturers, providing crucial pre-delivery payments that subsidize development costs. Provincial governments offer direct subsidies, with some regions proposing up to 20 million yuan per airport project. This model allows Chinese companies to iterate rapidly, testing real-world operations while Western competitors burn cash waiting for certification.
Environmental Claims and Carbon Neutrality Targets
China frames low-altitude economic development within its carbon-neutrality strategy. President Xi Jinping announced in September 2020 that China aims to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. China accounts for 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions, totaling nearly 16 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2023, with energy-related emissions reaching 28% of the worldwide total in 2019. The 15th Five-Year Plan reinforces these commitments across all economic sectors.
EHang claims its EH216-S produces zero direct emissions compared to helicopter alternatives, while AutoFlight’s electric propulsion eliminates local air pollution. The National Development and Reform Commission frames low-altitude economic development as contributing to China’s 2060 carbon-neutrality targets. Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft operating costs are significantly lower than those of fossil-fuel helicopters, with maintenance costs around 19 cents per available seat mile and minimal fuel expenses.
Critics note that China’s coal-dependent electricity generation limits actual emissions reductions from electric aircraft. Unlike power generation, which can directly use wind and solar, transportation needs clean fuel solutions that can be transported and stored. For short-haul applications such as urban air mobility and drone delivery, electrification powered by renewable energy offers viable pathways. Long-distance aviation remains among the most challenging sectors to decarbonize.
Research from the University of Michigan suggests eVTOLs achieve sustainability benefits only under specific conditions: trips exceeding 60 miles with full occupancy compared to passenger cars averaging 1.5 occupants. Grid decarbonization represents the primary factor determining eVTOL environmental impact, with battery density improvements taking second priority. Manufacturing plants’ power sources also affect overall sustainability, creating dependencies on regional energy infrastructure that China continues to develop through massive additions of renewable capacity alongside persistent coal generation.
Regional Ripple Effects: Asia-Pacific and Beyond
Domestic Market Transformation
The 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly targets domestic consumption, aiming to boost household spending “significantly” while reducing reliance on real estate and exports. The low-altitude economy addresses multiple domestic challenges simultaneously. Urban congestion worsens as Chinese cities expand. The real estate sector, once generating one-third of provincial revenue through land sales, slumps. Provincial governments see low-altitude economy development as a revenue replacement strategy while solving practical transportation problems.
Southeast Asian Expansion
Chinese manufacturers aggressively target Southeast Asia once their domestic operations become profitable. Companies showcased at the China-South Asia Expo in Kunming, explicitly seeking partnerships with South and Southeast Asian nations. Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines are ideal markets for Chinese low-altitude economy solutions, including urban air mobility applications, drone delivery logistics, and autonomous agricultural aircraft.
Geography favors this expansion. ASEAN’s archipelagic nature creates conditions in which eVTOL air taxis, drone logistics, and precision agriculture help address infrastructure gaps. Malaysia-based companies like Aonic are eyeing expansion into Indonesia and the Philippines, where extensive farming activity creates demand for agricultural drones. Vietnam’s government expressed interest in smart farming applications. During COVID-19, Makassar deployed drones to deliver medicine and food to isolated patients, demonstrating how low-altitude solutions transform logistics in regions with challenging terrain.
Middle Eastern and African Markets
The Air Silk Road, Beijing’s aviation component of the Belt and Road Initiative, provides the framework for international expansion. China operates scheduled passenger flights to 61 BRI partner countries and cargo flights to 33 of them. The Zhengzhou-Kuala Lumpur “twin hub” initiative establishes Malaysia as a regional logistics center connecting ASEAN markets with Chinese supply chains. EHang demonstrated its aircraft in Rwanda in September 2025, showcasing its capabilities to African governments. The company now operates in 21 countries across five continents.
Middle Eastern markets represent another target. COMAC, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, showcased its C909 (formerly ARJ21) regional jet and C919 narrowbody aircraft at Dubai Airshow 2025, seeking buyers willing to accept CAAC certification rather than waiting for FAA or EASA validation. Brunei’s GallopAir ordered 15 C919s plus 15 C909 regional jets in a $2 billion deal, becoming the first international C919 customer. Malaysia’s AirAsia confirmed advanced talks for an undisclosed number of C919s in September 2025. These commercial aircraft sales provide entry points for broader aviation cooperation, including low-altitude economy infrastructure and operations.
The Global Competitive Landscape: A Widening Gap
China dominates advanced air mobility by nearly every metric. The country accounts for over 70% of global drone and UAV patent applications. EHang and AutoFlight achieved certification milestones Western competitors won’t reach until 2026 or later. Chinese manufacturers operate commercial services while Joby, Archer, Volocopter, and Lilium conduct test flights.
The global advanced air mobility market reached $8.7-15.6 billion in 2024, with projections ranging from $45 billion to $90 billion by 2034-2035, representing compound annual growth rates of 17.9-20.6%. China leads Asia-Pacific growth at 27.8%, followed by India at 25.8%, Germany at 23.7%, and the United States at 17.5%. North America held 86.7% of its regional market in 2024, but Asia-Pacific growth rates suggest a shifting balance.
| Certification Approach | FAA/EASA | CAAC |
| Safety Threshold | $$10^{-9}$$ (1 in 1 billion hours) | $$10^{-8}$$ (1 in 100 million hours) |
| Initial Operations | Piloted required | Autonomous accepted |
| Certification Speed | 3-6 years average | 1-2 years demonstrated |
| First Passenger Certification | Target 2026-2027 | EHang October 2023 |
| Regulatory Philosophy | Safety-first, exhaustive testing | Iterative deployment, real-world validation |
Western regulators recognize they’re falling behind. The FAA and EASA released joint certification criteria in April 2025, attempting to narrow regulatory divergence. In June 2025, the National Aviation Authorities Network, comprising the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, published a roadmap for harmonized advanced air mobility certification. The document acknowledges that roughly 60% of AAM certification requirements are already covered by current aviation standards, with the remaining 40% requiring new safety assessment approaches for novel eVTOL technologies.
Fundamental differences persist. The FAA uses a case-by-case special class certification approach under Part 21.17(b), while the United Kingdom adopted EASA’s SC-VTOL standards. These frameworks differ in safety thresholds, propulsion certification requirements, and operational assumptions. Without harmonization, manufacturers face duplicative testing, extended timelines, and increased costs. EHang’s CAAC certification doesn’t enable European or American operations without separate validation processes that could take years.
Trade barriers compound regulatory challenges. The United States imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, with similar restrictions likely to extend to eVTOLs given their advanced-technology classification. COMAC encountered this firsthand when the United States temporarily suspended CFM engine exports for the C919 from June to July 2025. Chinese manufacturers attempting to enter Western markets through the FAA’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program face requirements that selection criteria include “use of eVTOL aircraft and technologies developed or offered by a US-based entity”. These restrictions effectively lock Chinese manufacturers out of the American market, regardless of their technical capabilities.
The Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreement between the FAA and CAAC, signed in 2005 with Implementation Procedures for Airworthiness established in 2018, theoretically enables mutual recognition. Political tensions and divergent safety philosophies mean both agencies conduct exhaustive independent reviews rather than accepting each other’s certifications. This fragmentation creates a bifurcated global market in which Chinese low-altitude economic dominance may remain largely confined to domestic operations and to emerging markets that accept CAAC certification.
Aerospace Ambitions: Connecting Low Altitude to Outer Space
The 15th Five-Year Plan elevates aerospace to unprecedented prominence, with “spacefaring nation” appearing in the communique for the first time. This connects directly to low-altitude economy development through several pathways. China’s aerospace ambitions span commercial aircraft, military aviation, and space exploration, all of which receive substantial state support.
COMAC’s C919 and ARJ21 represent Beijing’s attempt to break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly in commercial aviation. The C919 secured over 1,000 orders, primarily domestic, with 11 aircraft in commercial service as of November 2024. The ARJ21 regional jet operates 121 active aircraft. These programs cost billions and rely heavily on foreign components, including CFM International LEAP engines for the C919. They demonstrate China’s commitment to aviation self-sufficiency by 2035.
Low-altitude economy and aerospace development share technological foundations, electric propulsion, advanced materials, autonomous systems, battery technology, and AI-driven navigation. Progress in one domain accelerates the other. Provincial governments supporting low-altitude economy infrastructure also fund aerospace R&D, creating synergies across aviation segments. Universities launch specialized low-altitude degrees alongside aerospace engineering programs. Advances in vertiport design, battery systems, and air traffic management benefit both urban air mobility and broader aerospace applications.
What This Means for the Rest of the World
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan presents a coordinated strategy linking technological self-reliance, domestic market development, and international expansion. For Western advanced air mobility companies, China’s lead forces a strategic reckoning. The FAA and EASA accelerated harmonization efforts in response to Chinese competition, but regulatory processes still lag operational realities. Companies like Joby, Archer, and Volocopter missed all 2024 certification targets while Chinese competitors accumulated commercial flight hours. The certification delay threatens Western manufacturers’ financial viability as revenue remains blocked pending regulatory approval.
Emerging markets face a choice between waiting for FAA/EASA-certified aircraft or accepting CAAC-certified Chinese alternatives at lower prices with immediate availability. Chinese manufacturers offer subsidized financing, government-backed delivery guarantees, and integrated infrastructure development. Western aircraft, if they eventually certify, will cost more and arrive later. For countries prioritizing practical transportation solutions over geopolitical alignment, Chinese low-altitude economy systems present compelling value.
| Metric | 2024 Actual | 2025 Projection | 2035 Projection |
| China LAE Market Value | 670B yuan | 1.5T yuan ($211B) | 3.5T yuan ($483B) |
| Global Vertiports Planned | 1,504 | - | - |
| China Share of Global Vertiports | 750+ (50%+) | - | - |
| Shenzhen Cargo Flights | 776,000 (+27% YoY) | - | - |
| China's middle-income population | 800M |
International collaboration remains possible despite tensions. Skyportz, an Australian vertiport designer, partnered with Shenzhen-based Haylion Technologies to deploy modular vertiports across China. These partnerships suggest pathways for Western technology companies to participate in the growth of China’s low-altitude economy without directly competing in aircraft manufacturing. Operational data from China’s early deployments provides valuable insights for global stakeholders developing safety protocols, public acceptance strategies, and business models.
The harmonization challenge extends beyond bilateral agreements. ICAO working papers acknowledge that without global standards, eVTOL deployment faces scalability challenges, cost barriers, and international operability problems. The National Aviation Authorities Network roadmap commits to aligning standards by January 2027, but whether China participates in that harmonization remains unclear. A bifurcated regulatory ecosystem, with Chinese standards governing domestic and emerging markets while Western standards govern North America, Europe, and allied nations, seems increasingly likely.
Economic projections for China over the next five years show GDP growth moderating to 4.2-4.5% by 2026, down from 4.8% in 2025. The government emphasizes “reasonable” growth ranges rather than aggressive targets, prioritizing quality over quantity. Even at these rates, China’s economy will add roughly $2 trillion in annual output by 2030, creating vast domestic demand for low-altitude economy services. The plan explicitly aims to raise the middle class to 800 million people, representing a market larger than the combined markets of the United States and the European Union.
Foreign companies face both opportunities and restrictions under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Beijing pledges continued opening to foreign investment while becoming more selective about desired projects. The emphasis on technological self-reliance suggests reduced tolerance for dependencies on Western components. Companies supplying China’s low-altitude economy industry should prepare for increased pressure to localize production and transfer technology, or risk being replaced by domestic alternatives.
China’s approach carries trade-offs. Accelerated certification may compromise safety margins, as the September 2025 Xpeng collision demonstrated. Limited public engagement raises questions about noise, privacy, and social acceptance as operations scale. Early operational experience reveals challenges, short flight ranges, fixed routes, low passenger volumes, and unresolved airspace integration issues. China accepts these limitations as part of an iterative development process, preferring real-world testing to simulation-heavy Western approaches.
Beijing views the low-altitude economy not as a niche aviation market but as strategic infrastructure fundamental to modernization goals, economic security, and global competitiveness. The 15th Five-Year Plan commits massive resources, financial, regulatory, and institutional, to ensuring Chinese leadership. Western companies and governments that dismissed Chinese aviation capabilities as derivative now confront an uncomfortable reality: in the race for the skies below 3,000 meters, China holds a commanding lead. The next five years will determine whether that lead becomes insurmountable.
Frequently Asked Questions
What defines China's low-altitude economy? Economic activities below 3,000 meters altitude, encompassing eVTOL aircraft, drones, urban air mobility operations, agricultural applications, and emergency services, are projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025.
Which Chinese companies lead eVTOL development? EHang (world’s first certified passenger eVTOL with commercial operations), AutoFlight (ton-class cargo certification), and DJI (70% global drone market share). Xpeng Aeroht develops flying car concepts targeting the consumer market.
How does China’s eVTOL certification differ from FAA and EASA approaches? The Civil Aviation Administration of China accepts autonomous operations immediately with a $$10^{-8}$$ safety threshold, versus the FAA and EASA’s $$10^{-9}$$ requirement and a piloted-first approach, creating a 1-2 year certification process compared to Western 3-6 year timelines.
What are the six Chinese low-altitude pilot cities? Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Hefei, Suzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing are designated for operations below 600 meters, with Shenzhen hosting over 1,700 low-altitude economy enterprises.
How do Chinese eVTOL prices compare with those of Western competitors? EHang prices the EH216-S at $330,000 domestically and $410,000 internationally, while Western competitors like Lilium target $7-10 million, and Archer’s Midnight projects initial production costs of $2-2.5 million.
